My predictions for this election year are based on polling data as of 10/31.

I’m no expert but after the past week events by Trump’s Campaign in NYC, Biden’s response and Harris/Walz criss-crossing national and the polling reports, I think these things will happen.

• NC is going to go for the DNC much bigger than people think mostly because of the action of the NC gubernatorial candidate and last minute voters responding to this week’s events.
• MI is going to go RNC because of the response to the escalation of events in Israel and the shift of voters. I think the Congressional seats are a toss up mainly because I don’t know enough about the demographic breakdown across the district’s boundaries.
• WI is going to go DNC because of the moves by Harris/Walz late to move voters to show up in the cities in response to social and economic issues but it’s going to be close.
• AZ is going to break for RNC mostly based on the narrative around immigration and the ways the Trump/Vance campaign shifted the focus to immigration as an unresolved issue from Biden’s administration and away from the political Congressional drama from the summer.
• TX will go for RNC but the presidential vote will be closer than 100k votes and in a surprise upset Colin Alred will defeat Ted Cruz.
• GA will go RNC but in a similar fashion the vote is going to be very close, again maybe less than 100k difference.
• Harris/Walz 83.7M votes Trump/Vance 76.4M Votes with an overall increase of 6% turn out to almost 72%.
• RNC will keep a slim majority in the House and a possible Speaker fight by members upset that they lost the White House.
• Senate will be a 50/50 split which will intensify the urgency in the House to push a moderate Speaker that can create bills that can get through the Senate.

NY Times The Daily: Six Days Left: Closing Arguments, Racist Jokes and Burning Ballots

NPR Politics Podcast: Roundup: both campaigns have the same message

NPR Politics Podcast: What early voting can — and cannot — tell us about the election

FiveThirtyEight: Predictions Forecast