An Introduction to Alternative Histories and the Power of Contingency

History, we’re often told, is written by the victors. But what if history could have been written entirely differently? What if a single artillery shell had found a different target, a papal encyclical had used stronger language, or a diplomatic cable had arrived an hour earlier? Welcome to a series exploring how the smallest changes in pivotal moments could have fundamentally altered the course of human civilization.

The Fragility of Historical Inevitability

We tend to view history as a series of inevitable progressions—empires that were destined to rise and fall, wars that had to be fought, and social changes that were bound to occur. This perspective, known as historical determinism, suggests that the broad sweep of human events follows predictable patterns driven by economic forces, technological development, and social evolution.

But this view obscures a profound truth: history balances on knife edges. The outcomes we consider inevitable often depended on moments of contingency so small they barely register in traditional historical accounts. A wrong turn by an archduke’s driver in Sarajevo triggers World War I. A mistranslated diplomatic telegram escalates tensions beyond repair. A single individual’s decision to speak or remain silent reshapes the moral landscape of an entire era.

The butterfly effect—the idea that small changes in initial conditions can produce large-scale and unpredictable consequences—applies as much to human history as it does to weather systems. A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil might not cause a tornado in Texas, but an artillery shell finding Otto von Bismarck at the Battle of Sedan could prevent German unification and reshape the entire trajectory of European civilization.

Why Alternative History Matters

Exploring alternative histories isn’t merely an exercise in creative speculation. It serves several crucial purposes for understanding our world:

Revealing Hidden Contingencies: By examining what might have happened differently, we better understand the factors that actually shaped our timeline. Alternative histories illuminate the decisions, accidents, and personalities that proved decisive, helping us see past the illusion of historical inevitability.

Understanding Causation: When we trace how small changes might have cascaded into dramatically different outcomes, we develop a more sophisticated understanding of how historical forces actually interact. We begin to see which factors were truly fundamental and which were merely circumstantial.

Appreciating Complexity: Alternative scenarios remind us that history involves real people making decisions under uncertainty, often with incomplete information and conflicting pressures. This humanizes historical figures and helps us understand the genuine difficulty of the choices they faced.

Informing Present Decisions: By exploring how different past decisions might have led to different presents, we become more thoughtful about the potential long-term consequences of contemporary choices. Alternative history is ultimately about understanding how the future remains open and contingent.

The Method Behind the Speculation

Responsible alternative history requires careful attention to historical plausibility. Each scenario in this series begins with a specific, realistic point of departure—what historians call a “point of divergence” or POD. From there, we trace the logical consequences through careful attention to:

Personality and Character: How would specific historical figures have responded to changed circumstances? What were their actual motivations, capabilities, and limitations?

Institutional Constraints: What were the political, economic, and social structures that would have shaped responses to changed circumstances? Which institutions were flexible and which were rigid?

Technological and Geographic Realities: What were the material constraints that would have limited or enabled certain outcomes? How would different decisions have interacted with unchanging physical realities?

Cultural and Ideological Context: What were the prevailing beliefs, values, and worldviews that would have influenced how people interpreted and responded to changed circumstances?

The goal is not to create fantastical scenarios, but to explore plausible alternative paths that history might have taken given different initial conditions.

Origins of These Thought Experiments

These alternative histories emerged from countless hours spent reading historical non-fiction, when certain passages would suddenly spark “what if” moments that demanded exploration. There’s something uniquely compelling about encountering a pivotal decision or narrow escape in historical accounts and realizing how easily things could have gone differently. These moments of historical contingency—found in biographies, military histories, diplomatic studies, and social histories—serve as launching points for deeper exploration of causation and consequence.

The scenarios in this series represent some of the most intriguing of these “pancake moments”—those sudden flips in understanding that come when you realize how different the world might have been with just one small change.

The Stories Ahead

Over the coming months this series will examine several alternative scenarios that demonstrate how single decisions or events could have reshaped the modern world:

The Shattered Constitution: What if the Constitutional Convention of 1787 had failed to reach consensus, leading to the dissolution of the United States into three separate republics? We’ll explore how a divided North America might have developed along different economic, political, and social lines.

The Death of the Iron Chancellor: What if Otto von Bismarck had been killed early in the Franco-Prussian War, removing the diplomatic genius who carefully limited the conflict’s scope? We’ll examine how unchecked Prussian militarism might have triggered a general European war decades before 1914.

The Revolutionary Spring That Lasted: What if the 1848 revolutions across Europe had succeeded in establishing lasting democratic governments rather than collapsing into reaction? This scenario explores how a democratized Europe might have avoided the nationalist conflicts that dominated the later 19th century.

The Baltic Defense League: What if East Prussia, Poland, and Lithuania had formed a military confederation in 1919 to resist Russian Bolshevik aggression? We’ll trace how this alliance might have created a different balance of power in Eastern Europe and altered the course of both world wars.

Grant’s Third Term and the Caribbean Campaign: What if Ulysses S. Grant had won a third presidential term and appointed James Longstreet to head a new domestic FBI focused on civil rights and dismantling the KKK, while William Tecumseh Sherman led an invasion of Cuba to end slavery in the Caribbean? This scenario examines how sustained Reconstruction might have transformed both American society and Caribbean politics.

The Vatican’s War: What if Pope Pius XI had issued a more forceful condemnation of fascism in 1937, explicitly calling for Catholic resistance to totalitarian regimes? This scenario examines how religious uprising across Catholic Europe might have fractured fascist movements while triggering Nazi Germany’s embrace of neo-pagan ideology.

The Vacant See: Building on the religious conflicts of the previous scenario, what if the fall of Mussolini had triggered devastating Italian civil war, forcing the Pope into exile and ultimately leading to his death? We’ll explore how this crisis could have transformed the Catholic Church while reshaping global politics.

Some scenarios build directly on others, showing how initial changes compound over time to create increasingly different worlds. Together, they span crucial periods from the founding of America through the mid-20th century, illustrating how political, religious, military, and social factors have repeatedly intersected at critical junctures to shape our world.

The Deeper Questions

Beyond their narrative interest, these alternative histories raise profound questions about the nature of historical change:

How much do individuals matter? Our scenarios suggest that specific personalities—Bismarck’s diplomatic genius, a pope’s moral courage or lack thereof—can indeed alter the course of civilizations. This challenges both Marxist emphasis on economic forces and structural approaches that minimize individual agency.

What role does contingency play in institutional development? The scenarios explore how chance events and decisions can fundamentally alter the trajectory of major institutions like the German state, the Catholic Church, and the European balance of power.

How do moral and practical considerations interact in historical change? Each scenario involves tension between moral principles and practical politics, showing how ethical choices can have far-reaching practical consequences and vice versa.

What patterns persist across different timelines? By comparing alternative outcomes with actual history, we can identify which historical forces and patterns are more fundamental and which are more contingent.

An Invitation to Think Differently

As you read these alternative histories, resist the temptation to ask simply “what would have happened if?” Instead, consider the deeper questions: What does each scenario reveal about the forces that actually shaped our world? What does it suggest about the nature of historical causation? How might understanding these alternative paths inform our thinking about contemporary challenges?

History is not a predetermined script but an ongoing human drama where individual choices, chance events, and structural forces constantly interact in complex and often unpredictable ways. By exploring the paths not taken, we gain deeper appreciation for both the complexity of the past and the openness of the future.

The butterfly may not control the hurricane, but it reminds us that in human affairs, as in nature, small causes can indeed have large effects. The question is not whether we can predict these effects, but whether we can become more thoughtful about the choices we make and more aware of their potential consequences.

Welcome to a journey through the turning points that might have turned differently, and the worlds that might have been.

While these events are not true they are based on historic fact and the possibility of one change in history. To read more of my Alternate History scenarios, be sure read here.