My Election Morning Predictions: The Bluegrass and Beyond

Every fall, a student or a colleague asks me the same question: what do you think is going to happen? In my classroom, I keep my own politics out of the answer; on my blog, I can be more candid. I lean center-left, so please read these predictions with that in mind. I am forecasting what I expect, which is not always the same as what I want.

The National Picture

The national numbers look like a wave. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about nine points, and President Trump’s approval sits near 38 percent. Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to win the House. Republican redistricting will likely hold down the size of that win (one tracker estimates the map shift at nine seats), but I still expect Democrats to finish with about 235 seats.

The Senate is a harder call. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and the forecasters disagree. Sabato’s Crystal Ball sees a 53-47 Democratic chamber, while Fox News still calls control a toss-up. I will land in between: 51-49 Democratic. I expect pickups in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio, with the fourth seat coming from Texas, Alaska, or Kansas. I expect Iowa to stay Republican.

Central Kentucky

U.S. Senate: Andy Barr defeats Charles Booker by about 12 points. Public polling here is thin, and the most recent poll I found (released by Booker’s campaign in August) had Barr up nine. Democrats have not won a Kentucky Senate race since 1992, and a good national year will not erase that history.

Sixth District: Zach Dembo edges Ralph Alvarado by about two points. This is my boldest call. Trump carried this district by 15 points in 2024, and Barr won it by 26. However, Inside Elections moved the race to Toss-up on October 29, and the recent polls show Dembo ahead by three to nine points. There is one major caveat: every one of those polls comes from a Democratic pollster or sponsor, so I am discounting them heavily.

Lexington mayor: Linda Gorton wins a third term, about 54-46. Raquel Carter has run a serious first campaign, and her own poll showed a five-point race with 20 percent undecided. I wanted to say that Gorton was going lose because of two consecutive bad winter management plans and traffic issues citywide. However she Gorton has been able to move passed that and solidly disputes that poll, and she led the May primary 46 percent to 28 percent. I think incumbency and name recognition will carry her through, although with less room than her 71 percent win in 2022.

Frankfort: Very little changes. Republicans hold an 80-20 supermajority in the Kentucky House, and Democrats left many Republican-held districts uncontested. I expect that supermajority to survive, with any Democratic gains limited to a small number of seats.

How I Could Be Wrong

A Republican reader would make a fair case against these calls. The polls have overstated Democrats before, and Republicans can point to the Sixth District’s recent history as well as Fox’s scenario in which the party keeps as many as 52 Senate seats. President Trump predicts that Republicans will hold both chambers. One forecast published by MS NOW estimates that a large polling miss would still leave Democrats with about 226 House seats; however, a miss of that size would make my Senate and Sixth District calls look foolish.

Why This Matters for Our Classrooms

A forecast is a claim, and claims can be tested. Have students record their predictions today, along with their evidence, and then score them after the results are in. Most importantly, ask who paid for each poll. That single question does more for source literacy than almost anything else I teach in an election year.